Keep your eye on this guy

Igor. Just keeps getting bigger, meaner, faster and heavier. Ominous looking track for the Northeasterners among us. It's early on, though.



In the meantime, check out this video of surfing in the Northeast during Hurricane Danielle earlier. Surfers are so secretive about where they go, referring only to "really far North" and "back in town." My guess? Nova Scotia. Although there are some shots in this vid that look a lot like Maine.

Link.

TCD from the front lines

At 5 pm this afternoon Earl was 230 miles SSW of Nantucket and moving NE at 20+ mph. He's weakening throughout the nor'ward course. Below is a video and some pics from Long Island's South Shore circa 430 pm. The outer bar is breaking double overhead+. Looks a lot like the last scene in PB where Bodhi and Utah duke it out, Utah is getting his pretty boy arse kicked but somehow manages to cuff Bodhi, but then lets him paddle out into the 100 Year Storm at Bells.

Cliffs on both sides, man. I'm not gonna paddle to New Zealand.

Visual Earl Update (Destructive Waves!!)

People just don't talk like this anymore...

0500 report of The National Hurricane Center

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 140 KT WINDS AT 700 MB IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL. AN EYE DROPSONDE REPORTED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 929 MB WITH A WIND OF 25 KT...SUGGESTING A
CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 928 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT. EARL IS LIKELY NEAR PEAK INTENSITY AT THIS TIME...AS THE EYEWALL CONVECTION IS BECOMING A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/16. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HR.
EARL SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ENTERS THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SOLUTION...AND THE
NEW TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLUSTER. AFTER 48 HR...THE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT DUE TO CHANGES IN THE INTERACTION
OF EARL WITH A STRONG WESTERLY TROUGH DURING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE 48-72 HR TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT
STILL LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EARL SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY FOR 12 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND MOTION OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AT
ABOUT 48 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 72 HR...WITH THE REMNANTS OF EARL
BEING ABSORBED INTO A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW BY 96 HR.

Hurricane Earl Looking Ominous

Visual DATA

Great chart showing various computer models’ projections for the potential path of Earl. These models were as of earlier this morning.

IT'S ON LIKE DONKEY KONG

Three storms out there.

Because students always have a crush on a teacher, and because I am somehow usually a student, I have no problem admitting that I recently had a crush on a professor named Fiona. No longer. Longer story.

My Name is Earl

Labor Day Weekend plot-thickening storm. Swell should start to show in Long Island/southern New England by mid-week. Interests in Sully-ville islands (aka Nantucket) should keep a special eye on Earl's progress

Hurricane Predictions and Online Tracker

As Atlantic hurricane season approaches - it officially starts Tuesday - it's high time for some news on its predicted severity from TCD's crack squad of meteorologists. According to reports from Colorado State University's hurricane forecast team (apparently it is really legit) and Weather Services International, the threat of an above-average 2010 season has increased over the last month and it now promises to be "very active."

WSI is predicting 18 named storms and 10 hurricanes, five of which will be rated as Category 3 or higher (winds>110 mph). For some perspective, the 1950-2009 annual average is 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes and three rated as Category 3 or higher. The Northeast - which hasn't seen a serious storm since Bob in 1991 - faces a threat "on par with that in Florida and the Gulf coastal states," WSI Chief Meteorologist Todd Crawford said in the release.

Two other points that are important to consider.

1) Last year, hurricane forecasters blew it, but they are owning up to it somewhat. The 2009 storm season was the quietest since 1997, the result of an emerging El Nino event combined with relatively cool tropical Atlantic waters that suppressed widespread storm development. This year, however, "the primary drivers for tropical activity have sharply reversed course...and everything is in place for an incredibly active season ... eastern and central tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently at record warm levels for May, even warmer than the freakishly active season of 2005," according to WSI. As in Katrina and Rita of 2005 vintage.

2) This year's season will open with a very interesting twist, well covered by TCD: the Gulf oil disaster. Someone find me a nice overlay of the size and path of the oil spill and the size and path of Katrina. I bet the similarities are uncomfortable. The implications for the spread of the slick, and, more importantly, the clean-up efforts could be significant.

Finally, click here to play around with this sweet hurricane tracking software courtesy of our friends at MSNBC. Suck it, Fox.