Thursday, September 2, 2010

People just don't talk like this anymore...

0500 report of The National Hurricane Center

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 140 KT WINDS AT 700 MB IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL. AN EYE DROPSONDE REPORTED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 929 MB WITH A WIND OF 25 KT...SUGGESTING A
CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 928 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT. EARL IS LIKELY NEAR PEAK INTENSITY AT THIS TIME...AS THE EYEWALL CONVECTION IS BECOMING A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/16. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HR.
EARL SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ENTERS THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SOLUTION...AND THE
NEW TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLUSTER. AFTER 48 HR...THE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT DUE TO CHANGES IN THE INTERACTION
OF EARL WITH A STRONG WESTERLY TROUGH DURING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE 48-72 HR TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT
STILL LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EARL SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY FOR 12 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND MOTION OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AT
ABOUT 48 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 72 HR...WITH THE REMNANTS OF EARL
BEING ABSORBED INTO A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW BY 96 HR.

4 comments:

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  2. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION is a sweet phrase. Need to work that into my daily vernacular. Snipes, potential Boat name?

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  3. I think I use the word Extratropical at least 10 times during the September month. Just ask the POW (prince of wales)

    I like the boat name inspiration. How about this for a really shitty boat "tropical depression"

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  4. What about "warm seclusion"...A warm seclusion is the mature phase of the extratropical cyclone lifecycle. Thats a good song name.

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