As Atlantic hurricane season approaches - it officially starts Tuesday - it's high time for some news on its predicted severity from TCD's crack squad of meteorologists. According to reports from Colorado State University's hurricane forecast team (apparently it is really legit) and Weather Services International, the threat of an above-average 2010 season has increased over the last month and it now promises to be "very active."
WSI is predicting 18 named storms and 10 hurricanes, five of which will be rated as Category 3 or higher (winds>110 mph). For some perspective, the 1950-2009 annual average is 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes and three rated as Category 3 or higher. The Northeast - which hasn't seen a serious storm since Bob in 1991 - faces a threat "on par with that in Florida and the Gulf coastal states," WSI Chief Meteorologist Todd Crawford said in the release.
Two other points that are important to consider.
1) Last year, hurricane forecasters blew it, but they are owning up to it somewhat. The 2009 storm season was the quietest since 1997, the result of an emerging El Nino event combined with relatively cool tropical Atlantic waters that suppressed widespread storm development. This year, however, "the primary drivers for tropical activity have sharply reversed course...and everything is in place for an incredibly active season ... eastern and central tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently at record warm levels for May, even warmer than the freakishly active season of 2005," according to WSI. As in Katrina and Rita of 2005 vintage.
2) This year's season will open with a very interesting twist, well covered by TCD: the Gulf oil disaster. Someone find me a nice overlay of the size and path of the oil spill and the size and path of Katrina. I bet the similarities are uncomfortable. The implications for the spread of the slick, and, more importantly, the clean-up efforts could be significant.
Finally, click here to play around with this sweet hurricane tracking software courtesy of our friends at MSNBC. Suck it, Fox.
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